Aspen sees higher number of red flag fire warnings

The Roaring Fork Valley has so far this season seen conditions more conducive to wildfire than past years. 

Five red flag warnings have been issued so far in the Colorado River Headwaters region, which includes Pitkin and Eagle counties, as well as portions of eastern Garfield and Mesa counties. The most recent was issued on Monday, cautioning the public that high winds, low humidity, and dry fuels make for prime wildfire conditions. That’s compared to a past average of four warnings issued by the end of June, according to Lucas Boyer, meteorologist at the National Weather Service of Grand Junction.

“Five this year puts us just above average,” Boyer said. “(We’ve) had years with zero by (the) end (of) June, and we’ve had up to 18.”

The Monday warning was issued by the Grand Junction National Weather Service for areas below 7,000 feet in the lower Colorado River and the Colorado River Headwaters, which includes the Roaring Fork Valley from about Basalt to Glenwood Springs. The brush in areas above 7,000 feet is not yet dry enough to be of concern, according to Boyer.

The warning is issued when the relative humidity in an area is at 15% or below, when wind gusts or speeds are at 25 mph or above, and when the fuel is notably dry. 

As of Monday, Aspen was sitting at 11% humidity, and downvalley areas below 7,000 feet were at 5-10%. The affected area saw southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph, according to the red flag warning. 

In addition to Monday’s warning, Pitkin Alert on Wednesday issued a fire weather watch, warning of wind gusts up to 45 mph, low humidity, and dry fuel in Roaring Fork Valley areas below 7,000 feet this coming Friday. A fire weather watch alerts the public of the above conditions when the prediction is expected to be met in the next 24 to 48 hours, while a red flag warning is sent when the prediction is expected in the next 24 hours.

According to Mike Jones, fire management specialist of the Upper Colorado River Interagency Fire Management Unit, the Roaring Fork Valley contains dryer fuels this season compared to previous years. The unit sampled fuel this past Sunday on the Crown Recreation Area, just north of Mount Sopris, along with 10 other sites at various elevations from Grand Junction to Summit County. They do so every two weeks.

“We’ve had a dry winter,” Jones said. “We’re definitely in a drought, so year after year, we’re seeing those effects.”

The Climate Prediction Center predicted the drought to persist in Western Colorado through June. But predictions of a decent summer monsoon season could keep the landscape wetter than it would be otherwise, he said. 

Local agencies have not yet placed any fire restrictions on the Roaring Fork Valley. 

“Without restrictions, we know we’ll possibly have fires, but it’s a fire that we can get to and put out, and it’s not going to get away from us,” said Pitkin County Sheriff Michael Buglione. “When we go into restrictions, that’s when we feel, if there is a fire, it can get away from us.”

Buglione makes the ultimate call about fire restrictions for Pitkin County but collaborates with other Roaring Fork Valley fire departments, as well as the White River National Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management, Colorado Division of Fire Prevention and Control, and Pitkin County Emergency Management, so the decision is consistent across the area.

The agencies use science-based evidence to determine when to enter into restrictions. 

They determine the Energy Release Component of the landscape’s fuel — or the amount of energy a square foot of brush produces when burning — as one criteria to determine if to enter into a restriction, according to Aspen Fire Battalion Chief Jake Spaulding. If the square foot produces energy in the 90th to 96th percentile when on fire, meaning it burns with more energy than the vast majority of fuel, the area falls within the criteria to enter into a Stage I Fire Restriction. 

Agencies also determine how significant a risk humans pose to starting a fire on the landscape. Spaulding said they consider Fourth of July and other times with high potential for human-caused fire when determining restrictions.

Stage I Restrictions prevent campfire ignition outside of campsites, as well as smoking outside of a developed recreation site or an enclosed vehicle, among others, according to the Upper Colorado River Fire and Aviation Management Unit. 

Stage II restrictions prevent campfires altogether, prevent smoking except when in an enclosed vehicle or building, prevent the use of fireworks and explosives, among others.

Stage III restrictions constitute a complete burn ban, although Spaulding said Pitkin County hasn’t entered into this restriction in recent history.

Skyler Stark-Ragsdale can be reached at 970-429-9152 or email him at sstark-ragsdale@aspentimes.com.