Snowmass Village at forefront of wildfire resistance with new modeling project

The town of Snowmass Village, the Wildfire Collaborative Roaring Fork Valley, and Roaring Fork Fire Rescue are launching a wildfire risk modeling project in Snowmass Village to help the community better understand its exposure to wildfire.

The aim is to educate community members on how to identify the most effective steps to protect homes and neighborhoods. 

The AGNI-NAR model, at the center of the model, is a graph-theory-based model that represents homes and vegetation as “nodes” in an interconnected network to simulate how fire spreads through both the natural landscape and the built environment, according to a press release.

“This model goes beyond predicting flames on a map — it integrates fire behavior, infrastructure vulnerability, and community layout to simulate how wildfire interacts with the built environment and open space fuel,” said Dr. Hussam Mahmoud, the developer of the model, in the release. “By combining this science with local data from homeowners, Snowmass Village will gain a clear, evidence-based understanding of which areas and structures are most vulnerable — and which mitigation strategies will most effectively reduce risk.” 

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AGNI-NAR simulates how a fire could move through both the landscape and the built environment, as influenced by details such as wind speed and direction to capture home-to-home ignition, where embers will land, and potential evacuation challenges. It has been scientifically validated against real-world fire events, including California’s 2018 Camp Fire and Colorado’s 2021 Marshall Fire. The press release confirmed the model showed an 85% accuracy in predicting the path of wildfire and the resulting damage. 

“This project puts Snowmass Village at the forefront of wildfire resilience,” said Alyssa Shenk, mayor of Snowmass Village, in the release. “The results will give us clear, science-based guidance on which wildfire resiliency projects will most effectively protect our community. That information is critical as we work with the Wildfire Collaborative and Roaring Fork Fire to make decisions and invest in the work needed to reduce wildfire risk.” 

Angie Davlyn, executive director of the Wildfire Collaborative Roaring Fork Valley, highlighted the importance of this for Snowmass Village in particular.

“Snowmass Village faces some of the highest wildfire risk in the Roaring Fork Valley, with homes and forests intertwined,” Davlyn said. “Out of this project, the Town will have a clear understanding of the wildfire mitigation strategies — such as fire breaks and strategic fuels reduction — that will best protect residents and neighborhoods, and then we can work together to put those measures in place.” 

The Collaborative and Dr. Mahmoud’s team will also be conducting similar modeling in Marble and in the Three Mile and Four Mile areas of Glenwood Springs.

“While Dr. Mahmoud is working with communities across the country, the Roaring Fork Valley projects are at the forefront of this science because they are the first in the nation to integrate evacuation planning into wildfire modeling alongside building damage and mitigation strategies,” the press release states.

John Mele, Fire Marshall of Roaring Fork Fire Rescue, said the model will assist with understanding how to prioritize actions with the biggest impact in response to wildfire in Snowmass Village.

“The risk is real, and the stakes are high,” said Mele. “Community participation is essential to making it work.” 

Snowmass Village residents are being asked to participate by completing a short survey that collects home-level details, including roof type, vegetation levels, and more that are essential to the model’s accuracy.

“The more residents who respond, the better the model can reflect the community’s real conditions and produce results that guide effective action,” the press release states.

The survey can be found at https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1q_DyU5MSgcc8rDP0_NkJUtfNIwBhTm6MhtEgxZnoQOs/viewform?edit_requested=true.