Real estate confidence dips in short-term, much better than last year |

Real estate confidence dips in short-term, much better than last year

Andrew ErnemannBJ Adams & CompanyAspen, CO Colorado

As the title implies, this Index measures the current confidence level of local business people. Many of the survey participants are business owners and/or decision makers for their respective business. The Index takes into account how businesses have performed over the past year, and focuses more emphasis on the current health of our local economy, and the participants’ anticipated business outlook for the coming months and year.With two full years behind us of local business confidence surveys, and corresponding Index readings, we can make a few observations. First, our local business owners and decision makers continue to feel more positive overall about the future (although there continues to be a relatively small proportion that have concerns about the direction of our economy). Second, although the past six months (two survey cycles) has led to the two highest Index readings since we began collecting data in 2009, we are not out of the woods yet. Nearly 80 percent of the recent survey respondents feel their business will be performing better one year from now, and 67 percent of the responses indicate that their business is doing better than one year ago. On the other hand, 13 percent of the survey participants indicate their business is doing worse than three months ago, and the same percentage report a decline in their business performance over last year.Many of the present concerns about our economy seem to stem from broader uncertainty about our national and global economies; overall the survey respondents demonstrated more confidence in our local economy than at the national and global level. The slight dip in the Index from the previous reading in February 2011 is not enough of a drop to conclude that local business leaders are less confident today than they were in February, and in fact the May 2011 reading adds support to the notion that the 2010/2011 winter season was stronger for many businesses than the previous winter season. Looking into the future, 93 percent of the survey respondents anticipate their business will perform the same or better in the coming quarter than the same period last year (50 percent anticipate they will have better results, and 43 percent feel they will have similar results).There are numerous real estate development projects already started (or re-started) in Aspen, and more in the pipeline for Aspen and Snowmass Village. Coupled with the Aspen Skiing Company’s continued demonstration of confidence in the long-term viability of our tourism economy, we look forward to the next few Index readings to see if further stabilization and future recovery from the challenges of the past two and a half years takes hold.Andrew Ernemann BJ Adams & Company 970?379?8125 2011

Information about the Aspen/Snowmass Business Confidence Index:The Index has been compiled from surveys sent to local business leaders and owners in the Aspen/Snowmass area.A quick word on how to read the data: the Index is based on a scale of 0-100, with “50” being neutral. An Index level below 50 means there is negative sentiment about the current and future, and correspondingly a score above 50 implies a positive confidence level today and into the near future.Andrew Ernemann BJ Adams & Company 970?379?8125 2011

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