Four inches of snowfall expected on Monday for Aspen area mountains
Totals for December still look bleak, but hope may be coming
Ray K. Erku/The Aspen Times
Aspen can expect a brief break from sunshine and warmer weather on Monday as a fast-moving storm passes through, but the snow accumulation will be modest compared to the significant snowfall that led up to Thanksgiving.
Tom Renwick, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Grand Junction, predicts two inches of snow in town and about four inches at higher elevations, with the storm clearing by Tuesday morning.
Renwick is cautious about forecasting significant precipitation in the near future.
“I wish I had better news about any storms on their way, but all we are showing is a fast-moving storm on Monday that will be over Tuesday morning,” he said.
He added that current predictions for Aspen and the central mountains lean toward a drier pattern, although conditions could shift.
“The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is saying that the whole desert Southwest, which includes Colorado’s central mountains, will be dry this winter,” he said. “They also said that about the summer, and we all know how that went. Fingers crossed they are wrong again.”
Aspen experienced above-normal precipitation this summer, despite earlier dry forecasts. He noted, however, that La Niña winters typically trend drier.
“La Niña tends to lead to drier winters, but from living here for a while, I have noticed that things really kick in as far as moisture is concerned right after the new year,” Renwick said. “That has nothing to do with any forecasts; that has just been my experience during these types of years.”
La Niña, defined by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, often influences weather patterns by shifting the jet stream northward. This pattern usually brings increased precipitation to the Pacific Northwest and drier conditions across the southern United States, with Colorado falling in between.
For the 2024-2025 winter season, a weak La Niña is expected. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts drier-than-average conditions for much of the Great Plains and southern Rocky Mountains, while northern Colorado may see near-normal to slightly below-normal snowfall. Aspen has experienced both above- and below-average snowpack during the past five La Niña seasons.
Renwick remains optimistic, citing the unpredictable nature of winter weather. He pointed out that atmospheric rivers, which brought heavy snowfall to the area just over a week ago, have the potential to disrupt the dry La Niña pattern.
He said there is a possibility the area will see more of those systems moving in this winter — but not any time soon.
“There may be a little system coming the following weekend after Monday’s storm, but that will be very small,” he said. “Normally, atmospheric rivers will turn around a dry La Niña year and bring above-average snowfall, but we have nothing like that coming up as of yet.”
Atmospheric rivers are narrow bands of concentrated moisture that can transport precipitation directly from the Pacific Ocean to Colorado, sometimes overriding La Niña’s typically dry influence and the northern jet stream shift. While none are currently in the forecast, they remain a wildcard in this winter’s outlook.
Renwick emphasized that it is not technically even winter yet, leaving room for hope.
“I remain optimistic about the snow totals for this winter season,” he said.
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