Officials up Roaring Fork runoff forecast

Aspen Times Staff Report
Aspen, CO Colorado
April 8, 2008

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GLENWOOD SPRINGS — Old Man Winter is forcing the National Weath­er Service to reassess its forecast for the Roaring Fork River’s peak runoff this year.

The weather service’s Colorado Basin River Forecast Center issued a forecast last week that said the Roaring Fork River’s “most probable” peak will be about 9,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) at Glenwood Springs this spring. In its March 1 report, the river forecast center expected a peak of 8,500 cfs.

The forecast was revised upward because it keeps snowing, and the Roaring Fork Valley’s snowpack keeps building. The Roaring Fork basin’s snowpack was 50 percent above average on Monday, according to another federal agency, the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

The river forecast center, based in Salt Lake City, issues a report in the first week of each month from April through June. It helps local govern­ments know whether they need to plan for flood­ing.

Last year, the Roaring Fork River peaked at 3,930 cfs at Glenwood Springs on June 17. The riv­er typically peaks at about 6,150 cfs between June 3 and June 18, the river forecast center said.

The flood flow at Glenwood Springs is 11,800 cfs. The river forecast center said there is a 25 per­cent chance the Roaring Fork will exceed that lev­el this year by peaking at about 12,000 cfs. There is a 10 percent probability that the river will peak at 15,000 cfs, the center said.

The reports are revised each month, if needed. Precipitation and temperatures can alter the fore­casts.