How not to think much about global warming

Most of the public discussion about global warming is making it harder for people to understand the problem, and focuses on the easy things they can do right now to lessen global warming.

Listening to the news, you might think there are only two views about the likely result of global warming on all of us: Unmitigated disaster awaits us, there will be massive flooding, drought, storms, and death; or there is nothing we can do about it and it might be as good for us as it will be harmful. This way of looking at the problem is an insult to Americans' intelligence.

No Aspen business owner thinks the likely outcome for the next ski season is either no visitors or a tripling of sales. People know that the most likely outcome is somewhere in the middle. We expect a little more business than last year, but we do not expect either no snow or an all-time record as the most likely outcomes. Yet in the global warming discussions, it is common to hear people talk only about the unlikely extremes.

If you listen to scientists, however, you would hear that they don't think either of the extremes of "disaster" or "nothing will happen" is likely. They believe the most likely result for the next few decades is in the middle - a continuation of recent trends. Scientists know that temperatures have been rising and will continue to rise, that sea levels have risen some and will rise some more, that some species are shifting to higher altitudes or farther north, that many glaciers are melting, and that there will be changes in precipitation, with some areas getting more and some getting less rain and snow. Scientists know there are things that can be done to both lessen the amount of global warming, and to adapt to the warming that is sure to occur.

Some of the discussions about what we can do would give the impression that people think Americans are stupid, instead of the United States being the country that has always fostered technological innovations and creativity. They also forget that Americans have joined together throughout their history to solve problems, from civil rights to the environment. It is puzzling when someone suggests that the United States, the country that put people on the moon, does not have the minds and businesses to find ways to reduce carbon emissions in sensible ways now, and with future innovations later.

In fact, the most sensible approach to global warming is one that Aspenites take all the time in their own lives. Most of us buy car insurance, even though we don't believe that there are only two possible outcomes of our driving: that we will never have a fender-bender, or that we will drive off a cliff the next time we get in our car. We are not going to stop driving to avoid crashes; instead we buy insurance to protect ourselves in the case of a less likely but more harmful outcome. That is the approach scientists advocate for dealing with global warming: Do things now that make sense to lower the costs or likelihood of future risks.

Policy-makers need to give citizens a lot more credit for being willing to take responsibility for themselves and solve problems. Aspenites in their approach to taking care of their health are a perfect example. While more Americans die of heart disease or cancer than other causes, we don't act as if we need a crystal ball in order to know how to take care of ourselves. The odds are greatest that those two diseases are our biggest risk, so we take reasonable steps to lower that risk, especially steps we want to take anyway for other reasons! You would have to look very hard to find someone in Aspen who doesn't take care of him or herself, in ways like exercising, watching what they eat, or wearing sunscreen. We do these things because they are good for us anyway, keeping us looking good and able to be active. Many of us also take an aspirin a day or cholesterol-lowering drugs - things that are very easy to do and if they help, good; and if not, they haven't done us any harm.

Aspenites will tackle global warming just like they take care of their health, once they know what the "exercise plan" is that will help with global warming. People want very much to do their part - that is why Aspen is full of people who volunteer for community organizations and donate to local causes and support the community. People just have to know what they can do that is reasonable.

Global warming will be solved in just the way it was caused. Smart people have already figured out things we can do, that are either so easy they are no-brainers, or that actually save people money. There are bigger things that will need to be done in the future, that will take federal action and new technologies, but we can start right now to lessen global warming's effects on our environment and economy, as well its effects on our children.

You can go to the city of Aspen's new website, www.aspenglobalwarming.com, to find steps you can take right now. Bookmark it and keep checking back for the latest on the community's global warming efforts. One outstanding local source for information on easy things people can do to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and save money, is CORE, the Community Office for Resource Efficiency, at www.aspencore.org - click on "What you can do."

Someone said that no one person or town can solve the world's problems, but then, that's the only way problems have ever been solved, by each of us doing our own part. We can all have a huge impact on our greenhouse gas emissions, by a host of measures from turning down the heat in our homes a couple of degrees, to unplugging an extra refrigerator that is little used. Aspen has people who want to make a difference, and together we can show others how to start tackling this important problem. Our children will thank us!

For more information, contact the city's Environmental Health Department at 920-5075.

<i>Lee Cassin is the environmental health director for the city of Aspen.</i>